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July 19, 2006
Huntsman Endorses McCain Redux
*Update: I've been informed by a reader that I'm striking out here and that's it's nothing more than a selfish move by Huntsman who has ambitions beyond the BeeHive state. That could very well be correct. Reading tea leaves was never my gambit. Right or wrong, it's still going to be interesting to watch.
I've been doing a lot of thinking about the below post and I'm not quite sure my initial reaction as to "why" is completely accurate. My gut told me that they are they were partnering because of their common feelings regarding the immigration debate. As I talked it over with my wife and my good friend Francis, my thoughts have taken a different tack.
Why Huntsman would effectively endorse McCain by joining his PAC is the $64,000 dollar question. Could it be because he would like to position himself to be a VP candidate for a President McCain, as Francis suggests? Possibly, but that is nothing more than a symptom of an underlying cause. He could do the same with Romney if he thought him electable, and that’s where my mind has drifted.
In emails I sent out to friends and fellow bloggers announcing this news gem, I postulated that what Orrin Hatch does regarding these two potential candidates would speak volumes. If Hatch leans away from Romney it would signal that the most visible LDS politicians (Harry Reid doesn’t count) would be telegraphing the Church’s intentions with their actions, thereby letting the world know who they did and didn’t support. A pretty compelling scenario if I do say so myself.
After doing a little research, I discovered a couple of things. The first item is an article from the Deseret Morning News regarding how much money is being raised for Romney by the citizens of Utah. The highest donor is none other that the Governor’s father, John Huntsman Sr., who has given 128 large to Romney’s campaign. Junior’s actions today imply a rift in the family dynamics, at least where politics are concerned. So Romney makes a lot of money here, roughly 44% of the total 1. 6 million at the time the article was penned. We’re giving him money hand over fist, and all the evidence suggest we will continue to do so. Popularity doesn’t seem to be the problem, at least in Utah, and if you’re talking Utah, you’re talking the LDS church.
The second thing I found came courtesy of TKS with a great breakdown of a poll conducted to find out candidates that are deemed “acceptable.” The headline states:
41 percent of Republicans find McCain “not acceptable as a nominee.”
I thought that was interesting and wanted to get a look at the raw data. Romney is mentioned as well with about the same percentage rating him “not acceptable.” (The even more interesting number for me was the 27 percent who have no opinion. That is a number that can and must be moved to the acceptable column for Romney and can be done with an LDS education campaign tailored to eliminate the stigma attached to members of the LDS church. We’ll save that post for another day.) That number clearly has to be an alarm bell for McCain. He perceives himself such a darling of the media that it would be easy for him to get caught up in the hype and believe himself more popular than he actually is. He has some serious hurdles to face (Gang of 14, Immigration, McCain Feingold, just to name a few) and I think he will encounter some difficulty in the primaries.
How to counter that? If there is one surety in politics it’s the misguided belief that money can fix all your problems and right now there is a huge amount pouring from Mormon donors to a Mormon candidate. Could the aim be to tap into the pipeline by attaching another fairly popular member of the LDS church to your campaign? (And if you have a buried, secret wish to stick it to dear old dad in the process, then this works out fairly well for Huntsman.) Also, if the winds of popularity are blowing in the direction of Romney, it wouldn’t be out of character for McCain to find a way to associate himself with the LDS church. He’s an opportunist, first and foremost.
The inverse of the “running toward Romney” items I mention above is that Huntsman is “running away from Romney.” It’s entirely possible that Huntsman has an inside track on Romney’s true standing with the church and its membership and after getting out his calculator and doing some numbers, decided it wasn’t worth the effort. Despite my admiration for Romney, the “acceptable” rating in the poll above for Romney is disturbing, and there is this poll by KSL regarding the possible liability being LDS may be for Romney. It shows that 37 % wouldn't vote for a Mormon. The only greater number was for a Muslim. Sheesh! Because there is over two years before the election, I’m not terribly worried, but the numbers have to get better.
Huntsman could very well be looking at the lesser of two evils. If you thro your vote behind someone you support but who can’t win, it’s a wasted vote. Hugh Hewitt taught me that during the Coors campaign in 2004 and it’s a lesson well learned. If Huntsman looks at Romney and sees him unelectable, then jumping ship to McCain makes sense. We do all have the same goal and that’s to keep the White House in Republican hands.
It begs to be an interesting next two years as the dust is blown off the political chess board and the pieces are aligned on their respective colors, standing rigidly, awaiting battle. “Pawn to Queen’s Rook 2” says McCain/Huntsman. Romney, your move.
Posted by Jonathan at July 19, 2006 8:59 PM
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Comments
You are missing the mark completely. This is nothing more than a self-serving move on the part of Jon Huntsman. If McCain can pull this off, the fact that Jonny was the first to support him (no other governor is committing to a candidate so early in the game) puts Huntsman at the front of the pack for a prominent position in the new administration. He would never get such a role with Romney, because it would be political suicide for Mitt to stack his administration with Mormons. This is Huntsman's best shot at getting a national position -- end of story.
Trust me, his motivations for becoming governor were not to serve the state. The governorship is only a stepping stone to something bigger on the national stage. If you take a close look, you'll find he's not very closely engaged in governing the state. He's delegated most of that work to his staff and Lt. Governor. His time is spent with foreign dignataries and photo ops.
His passion and focus are on something else -- not on Utah -- and he see's McCain his best bet to getting there.
Posted by: Emery at July 20, 2006 9:40 AM
Jon I believe you broke this story on the Blogosphere yesterday and you contiue to give the best deliberation of Gov. John Huntsman's. endorsement of RINO McCain that I've read so far. Great insights and speculation on this most curious mano a mano Greco-Roman wrestling match Mormon style. Congrats and keep it up!
Posted by: Francis at July 20, 2006 4:30 PM